Homework 6

1.)

When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
o Title: Return to Supersonic Commercial Flight in 2015
o http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/11/return-to-supersonic-commercial-flight.html
o Summary:
According to this website, the Aerion Supersonic Jet has test flights planned for 2012 an will fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.6. Compared to a conventional airplane flying from New York to Paris (which normally takes 7.5 hours) , this jet makes it there in just over 4 hours. With prospects like this, it looks like it will take a long time for commercial airplanes to become 10 times faster than they are today. However, I think it is important to note that this plane has a new design that has expected operation costs similar to that of today’s larger jets.

What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
o Title: Human Lifespan: Is There a Limit?
o http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s
o Summary:
One of the most startling conclusions this article comes to is that the number of people surviving after the age of 100 since 1950 in the US is growing at nearly 7% per year. Additionally, the article posits that the maximum human life span is changing and is not a biological constant. Although this article doesn’t allude to any specifics for the average lifespan in 2050, it makes an interesting estimate that the number of centenarians in the US will grow to 834,000 by 2050, from 72,000 in the year 2000. I do believe the average lifespan will increase, but since there are many variables to consider (cures for cancer, aids, starvation, etc), it may be too difficult to discern a reasonable estimate so far into the future.

Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
o Title: The Mac Versus PC Debate has Never Been Clearer
o http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/23/the-mac-versus-pc-debate-has-never-been-clearer/
o Summary:
In Apple’s quarterly review, their COO Tim Cook stated that the company’s goal was “Not to build the most computers…it’s to build the best.” In my opinion, this article puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. The cold hard fact: Apple has less than 10% of the market, when compared to Windows-based PCs, and most importantly, when price is a key factor, buyers will NEVER buy a Mac. Apple’s market is for premium high quality computers which has and probably always will be successful for them. They have 91% of the market for computers over $1000.

2.)
a) SOLAR ENERGY: For example, we all know that during the summer, one of the hardest costs to offset is for cooling. I would like to suggest a possibility for an advanced cooling system that uses solar energy to energize the cooling system, since often times it is very sunny during this time of year.

b) Principle 1
Energy sources that are more localized instead of mass produced energy, through the implementation of localized green energy technologies. This would help alleviate current issues with current green energy sources efficiency and sustainability issues for larger populations.

Principle 6
For example, one could make window blinds that had solar panel servers to collect energy, or devise exterior building materials that could collect solar energy.

Principle 14
For example, one could use mirrors and curved reflective panels to focus light more directly and intensely on solar panels, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency.

Principle 15
For example, one could design a solar power system that automatically adjusts to the maximum light intensity for optimal efficiency of the solar panel.

Principle 17
For example, one could design a solar power system with multiple panels configured in the most optimum arrangement, instead of just having single sets of panels.

Principle 23
For example, one could introduce feedback into a solar panel system to help the efficiency of the solar panel system.

Principle 30
For example, one could devise a thin film “solar panel” that can be applied over larger areas that is flexible instead of rigid.

Principle 34
For example, one could devise solar panel system that would automatically remove a broken solar panel section and then repair the section with a new set of solar panels, without having to completely disable the solar panels.

Homework 5

Homework 5

1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.

2) 10 Markets of Interest

1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics

2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record

3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone

4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025

5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009

6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)

7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.

8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010

9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win

10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009

3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics

2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record

3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone

4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025

5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009

6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)

7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.

8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010

9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win

10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009

4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left

2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left

3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left

Homework 4

1. Delphi Method Results for Question Posed to Class (Responses: 1, 2, 4, 5, 5-6, 7, 8, 12, 12-15, 19, Never)

2. Tentatively, I would like my term project to be something related to "green energy" technologies. I believe that these technologies are an integral part to our future, and their presence will become overwhelming in our lifetime. For my project, I would like to explore these new technologies and determine when their presence dominates that of older energy technologies, including energy obtained from all non-renewable sources. As for next steps, I would like to investigate potential new green energy technologies and the likelihood of their acceptance or success.

Homework 3

1.

a. (My question was discussed but I never received an e-mail with my numbers. Hopefully the classmate will be in class and I can obtain the data.)

How many years will it take for high-tech mobile devices, complete with Internet access, telephony, and PC functionality, to take over the main-stream PC market?

b. I designed my question this way in order to pinpoint a numerical answer (in number of years) of how long it would take for high-tech mobile devices to take over the PC’s market share.

2. According to information found on the Illinois Institute of Technology’s (IIT) website, the Delphi Method is mainly comprised of the following steps (http://www.iit.edu/~it/delphi.html):

1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.
3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)
5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists
6. Analysis of the first round responses
7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)
8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists
9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)
10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise

When comparing the above mentioned process with the one discussed in class, a few differences can be seen. One of the most important differences I noted was that the panel members discussing the issues were not experts of the topics being discussed. The topics discussed covered a broad array of knowledge and problems, and I feel that most panel members could not be classified as experts in these topics. Additionally, in light of some compelling arguments, we were still only allowed two total responses to the issues discussed. I believe that on a few of the items covered, further discussion and responses were needed to accommodate the methodology used in the Delphi Method.

3. There are two main weaknesses that I see for the process we followed in class. First off, none of us can be considered “experts” in the topics we discussed. The Delphi method requires this. Secondly, we were only allowed to discuss the items twice for a total of two responses.

The first problem can’t really be remedied that easily; however, the second problem could easily be remedied by allowing the discussion of the topic until a general consensus was reached to move forward.

Homework 2

1.)
Renewable (Green) Energy: In our near future?
Renewable energy sources have long been a hot topic for discussion. The world over knows that the majority of energy resources driving our world as we know it are non-renewable, and a need for cheap, sustainable, renewable energy sources is clearly necessary to sustain our life as we know it in the future. However, when will this transition occur?

According to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622), the world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com/reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.

Roadmap to Renewable Energy
With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.

Conclusions
Green energy is in our near future, and very well my become a lucrative market as we continue to deplete our non-renewable resources.


2.) Multi-part Question

a. Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.

Answer: 12 years

b. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)

Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 41.421% / year

c. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.

Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 58.74% / year

d. What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?

Answer: 35 years