Homework 3

1.

a. (My question was discussed but I never received an e-mail with my numbers. Hopefully the classmate will be in class and I can obtain the data.)

How many years will it take for high-tech mobile devices, complete with Internet access, telephony, and PC functionality, to take over the main-stream PC market?

b. I designed my question this way in order to pinpoint a numerical answer (in number of years) of how long it would take for high-tech mobile devices to take over the PC’s market share.

2. According to information found on the Illinois Institute of Technology’s (IIT) website, the Delphi Method is mainly comprised of the following steps (http://www.iit.edu/~it/delphi.html):

1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.
3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)
5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists
6. Analysis of the first round responses
7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)
8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists
9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)
10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise

When comparing the above mentioned process with the one discussed in class, a few differences can be seen. One of the most important differences I noted was that the panel members discussing the issues were not experts of the topics being discussed. The topics discussed covered a broad array of knowledge and problems, and I feel that most panel members could not be classified as experts in these topics. Additionally, in light of some compelling arguments, we were still only allowed two total responses to the issues discussed. I believe that on a few of the items covered, further discussion and responses were needed to accommodate the methodology used in the Delphi Method.

3. There are two main weaknesses that I see for the process we followed in class. First off, none of us can be considered “experts” in the topics we discussed. The Delphi method requires this. Secondly, we were only allowed to discuss the items twice for a total of two responses.

The first problem can’t really be remedied that easily; however, the second problem could easily be remedied by allowing the discussion of the topic until a general consensus was reached to move forward.