Homework 5

Homework 5

1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.

2) 10 Markets of Interest

1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics

2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record

3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone

4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025

5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009

6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)

7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.

8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010

9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win

10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009

3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics

2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record

3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone

4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025

5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009

6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)

7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.

8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010

9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win

10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009

4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left

2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left

3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left