Q1) We discussed in class how there is no such thing as a "scientific proof." Explain in your own words.
There is no such thing as a scientific proof as science primarily deals with theories and hypotheses. A scientific theory is a hypothesis supported by observation and the documentation of the outcomes of the experiments aimed at proving or disproving the hypothesis. However, there is no ultimate proof that a scientific theory or hypothesis holds in all outcomes or situations as we do not have a universal knowledge and understanding of everything there is to know in science; for example, there is a possibility that an experiment could disprove the theory of relativity, we just don't know what experiment that is. Therefore in science, an absolute proof is almost always impossible. Science purely tries to explain things by finding evidence supporting the hypothesis.
Q2) Write a new part for your project of 250 words or more.
Click here to view the second pre-draft of my report. It includes updates to sections, "History of Green Energy Sources" and "New Green Energy Technologies".
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Homework 9
As assigned in IFSC 4399, I have began drafting my final report on the past, present, and future of green energy technologies as a replacement for current non-renewable energy sources.
Click here to view a pre-draft of my report.
As far as work I have done on my report; I have drafted the following sections of my report: Purpose and Introduction. Additionally, I have started drafting the section regarding the History of Green Energy Sources. For the other sections of my report (Current Green Energy Sources, New Green Energy Technologies, Promising Technologies, Roadmap to the Future, A Glimpse of the Future: 2109, and the Conclusion), I have started to look for content to add to these sections. For all sections of the report, I have tried to note what I plan to do for each section.
Click here to view a pre-draft of my report.
As far as work I have done on my report; I have drafted the following sections of my report: Purpose and Introduction. Additionally, I have started drafting the section regarding the History of Green Energy Sources. For the other sections of my report (Current Green Energy Sources, New Green Energy Technologies, Promising Technologies, Roadmap to the Future, A Glimpse of the Future: 2109, and the Conclusion), I have started to look for content to add to these sections. For all sections of the report, I have tried to note what I plan to do for each section.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Homework 8: Minority Report Review
Minority Report is a movie set in the future around 2054 in Washington, D.C. The movie is premised on the fact that in the city, murderers are caught before they actually commit the crime based on visual evidence obtained from three precognitives, or ‘precogs’, who can see the future murders happening while they are in a dreamy state. A high-tech computer system captures these images from the precogs as they are seeing them, and the Washington, D.C. Precrime division uses those images as evidence in convicting the criminals.
Now, I realize movies are not necessarily supposed to be realistic, but I have to say this: I don't believe the events portrayed in this movie could actually happen in real life. One of the most troubling concepts I have with this movie in relation to the real world is that in the movie, they are arresting individuals before they commit a crime. Arguably, the ‘precogs’ are never wrong and the utopian idea of a murder-less society is very appealing. However, using the precogs’ visions of future murders as evidence for crimes that have not yet been committed is something I believe our society would not be okay with.
Another concept I find debatable in this movie is the concept of free-will versus predestination, and whether free-will can alter the future. As the Division of Precrime uses the precogs’ visions for committals, this movie tends towards the idea of predestination, and that the future can’t be altered. I find this hard to grasp as I believe that free-will drives and empowers us and the path we take changes our future.
Regardless, this movie is great and I recommend all to watch it.
Now, I realize movies are not necessarily supposed to be realistic, but I have to say this: I don't believe the events portrayed in this movie could actually happen in real life. One of the most troubling concepts I have with this movie in relation to the real world is that in the movie, they are arresting individuals before they commit a crime. Arguably, the ‘precogs’ are never wrong and the utopian idea of a murder-less society is very appealing. However, using the precogs’ visions of future murders as evidence for crimes that have not yet been committed is something I believe our society would not be okay with.
Another concept I find debatable in this movie is the concept of free-will versus predestination, and whether free-will can alter the future. As the Division of Precrime uses the precogs’ visions for committals, this movie tends towards the idea of predestination, and that the future can’t be altered. I find this hard to grasp as I believe that free-will drives and empowers us and the path we take changes our future.
Regardless, this movie is great and I recommend all to watch it.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Homework 7: Outline for Final Project
Green Energy Technologies:
A Look at the Present and
A Plausible Roadmap to the Future of Sustainable Green Energy
I. Introduction
a. Purpose
i. This report will delve into current green energy technologies and provide a roadmap to the future of sustainable green energy sources, as the need for sustainable renewable energy sources is becoming clear.
b. Orienting Material
i. The Need for a Sustainable Green Energy
1. Majority of energy today comes from nonrenewable resources
2. Due to depleting of natural resources, global warming (will not get into the debate), and many other reasons, clear and present need for sustainable green energy
3. (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&
contentId=7044622),
The world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com /reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
II. Body
a. History of Green Energy Sources
i. Early Times (B.C.)
1. First recorded use of “green energy”
http://www.thesolarguide.com/solar4scholars/renewable-history.aspx
a. 3200 BC First recorded use of wind energy. The sail is invented by the Egyptians.
b. 200 BC Invention of the windmill, in China.
2. 1839-The discovery of solar photovoltaics. Edmond Becquerel notices that sunlight absorbed in certain materials produces electricity.
3. 1882-The first hydroelectric plant is finished, in Appleton, Wisconsin.
ii. Present
1. Nuclear Powerà Not really green and comes from limited amounts of radioactive substances
2. Solar Energy
3. Hydroelectric Dams
4. Wind Power
5. Biomass/Biofuels
6. Geothermal
b. Current Innovative Green Technologies
i. Recent Innovations
1. Coal Power Gone Green http://www.anticorruption.ca/forum/phpBB2
/viewtopic.php?t=8276&sid=154576d81a76024e0113d8c481968d24
2. Website:
Description: This article gave information of using carbon nano-tubes instead of silicon to extract energy more efficiently from the sun.
3. Website: http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered- toyota-prius/
Description: This article gave information about possibly using algae as a replacement for gasoline in cars. This seems very possible and extremely eco-friendly because of a lack of harmful byproduct.)
c. A Look to the Future
i. Promising Technologies
ii. Roadmap
1. With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
iii. A Glimpse of the Future : 2109
1. Provide a fictional yet creative look at the future after a century of innovation.
III. Conclusion
a. Recap
A Look at the Present and
A Plausible Roadmap to the Future of Sustainable Green Energy
I. Introduction
a. Purpose
i. This report will delve into current green energy technologies and provide a roadmap to the future of sustainable green energy sources, as the need for sustainable renewable energy sources is becoming clear.
b. Orienting Material
i. The Need for a Sustainable Green Energy
1. Majority of energy today comes from nonrenewable resources
2. Due to depleting of natural resources, global warming (will not get into the debate), and many other reasons, clear and present need for sustainable green energy
3. (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&
contentId=7044622),
The world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com /reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
II. Body
a. History of Green Energy Sources
i. Early Times (B.C.)
1. First recorded use of “green energy”
http://www.thesolarguide.com/solar4scholars/renewable-history.aspx
a. 3200 BC First recorded use of wind energy. The sail is invented by the Egyptians.
b. 200 BC Invention of the windmill, in China.
2. 1839-The discovery of solar photovoltaics. Edmond Becquerel notices that sunlight absorbed in certain materials produces electricity.
3. 1882-The first hydroelectric plant is finished, in Appleton, Wisconsin.
ii. Present
1. Nuclear Powerà Not really green and comes from limited amounts of radioactive substances
2. Solar Energy
3. Hydroelectric Dams
4. Wind Power
5. Biomass/Biofuels
6. Geothermal
b. Current Innovative Green Technologies
i. Recent Innovations
1. Coal Power Gone Green http://www.anticorruption.ca/forum/phpBB2
/viewtopic.php?t=8276&sid=154576d81a76024e0113d8c481968d24
2. Website:
Description: This article gave information of using carbon nano-tubes instead of silicon to extract energy more efficiently from the sun.
3. Website: http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered- toyota-prius/
Description: This article gave information about possibly using algae as a replacement for gasoline in cars. This seems very possible and extremely eco-friendly because of a lack of harmful byproduct.)
c. A Look to the Future
i. Promising Technologies
ii. Roadmap
1. With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
iii. A Glimpse of the Future : 2109
1. Provide a fictional yet creative look at the future after a century of innovation.
III. Conclusion
a. Recap
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Homework 6
1.)
When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
o Title: Return to Supersonic Commercial Flight in 2015
o http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/11/return-to-supersonic-commercial-flight.html
o Summary:
According to this website, the Aerion Supersonic Jet has test flights planned for 2012 an will fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.6. Compared to a conventional airplane flying from New York to Paris (which normally takes 7.5 hours) , this jet makes it there in just over 4 hours. With prospects like this, it looks like it will take a long time for commercial airplanes to become 10 times faster than they are today. However, I think it is important to note that this plane has a new design that has expected operation costs similar to that of today’s larger jets.
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
o Title: Human Lifespan: Is There a Limit?
o http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s
o Summary:
One of the most startling conclusions this article comes to is that the number of people surviving after the age of 100 since 1950 in the US is growing at nearly 7% per year. Additionally, the article posits that the maximum human life span is changing and is not a biological constant. Although this article doesn’t allude to any specifics for the average lifespan in 2050, it makes an interesting estimate that the number of centenarians in the US will grow to 834,000 by 2050, from 72,000 in the year 2000. I do believe the average lifespan will increase, but since there are many variables to consider (cures for cancer, aids, starvation, etc), it may be too difficult to discern a reasonable estimate so far into the future.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
o Title: The Mac Versus PC Debate has Never Been Clearer
o http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/23/the-mac-versus-pc-debate-has-never-been-clearer/
o Summary:
In Apple’s quarterly review, their COO Tim Cook stated that the company’s goal was “Not to build the most computers…it’s to build the best.” In my opinion, this article puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. The cold hard fact: Apple has less than 10% of the market, when compared to Windows-based PCs, and most importantly, when price is a key factor, buyers will NEVER buy a Mac. Apple’s market is for premium high quality computers which has and probably always will be successful for them. They have 91% of the market for computers over $1000.
2.)
a) SOLAR ENERGY: For example, we all know that during the summer, one of the hardest costs to offset is for cooling. I would like to suggest a possibility for an advanced cooling system that uses solar energy to energize the cooling system, since often times it is very sunny during this time of year.
b) Principle 1
Energy sources that are more localized instead of mass produced energy, through the implementation of localized green energy technologies. This would help alleviate current issues with current green energy sources efficiency and sustainability issues for larger populations.
Principle 6
For example, one could make window blinds that had solar panel servers to collect energy, or devise exterior building materials that could collect solar energy.
Principle 14
For example, one could use mirrors and curved reflective panels to focus light more directly and intensely on solar panels, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency.
Principle 15
For example, one could design a solar power system that automatically adjusts to the maximum light intensity for optimal efficiency of the solar panel.
Principle 17
For example, one could design a solar power system with multiple panels configured in the most optimum arrangement, instead of just having single sets of panels.
Principle 23
For example, one could introduce feedback into a solar panel system to help the efficiency of the solar panel system.
Principle 30
For example, one could devise a thin film “solar panel” that can be applied over larger areas that is flexible instead of rigid.
Principle 34
For example, one could devise solar panel system that would automatically remove a broken solar panel section and then repair the section with a new set of solar panels, without having to completely disable the solar panels.
When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
o Title: Return to Supersonic Commercial Flight in 2015
o http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/11/return-to-supersonic-commercial-flight.html
o Summary:
According to this website, the Aerion Supersonic Jet has test flights planned for 2012 an will fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.6. Compared to a conventional airplane flying from New York to Paris (which normally takes 7.5 hours) , this jet makes it there in just over 4 hours. With prospects like this, it looks like it will take a long time for commercial airplanes to become 10 times faster than they are today. However, I think it is important to note that this plane has a new design that has expected operation costs similar to that of today’s larger jets.
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
o Title: Human Lifespan: Is There a Limit?
o http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s
o Summary:
One of the most startling conclusions this article comes to is that the number of people surviving after the age of 100 since 1950 in the US is growing at nearly 7% per year. Additionally, the article posits that the maximum human life span is changing and is not a biological constant. Although this article doesn’t allude to any specifics for the average lifespan in 2050, it makes an interesting estimate that the number of centenarians in the US will grow to 834,000 by 2050, from 72,000 in the year 2000. I do believe the average lifespan will increase, but since there are many variables to consider (cures for cancer, aids, starvation, etc), it may be too difficult to discern a reasonable estimate so far into the future.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
o Title: The Mac Versus PC Debate has Never Been Clearer
o http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/23/the-mac-versus-pc-debate-has-never-been-clearer/
o Summary:
In Apple’s quarterly review, their COO Tim Cook stated that the company’s goal was “Not to build the most computers…it’s to build the best.” In my opinion, this article puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. The cold hard fact: Apple has less than 10% of the market, when compared to Windows-based PCs, and most importantly, when price is a key factor, buyers will NEVER buy a Mac. Apple’s market is for premium high quality computers which has and probably always will be successful for them. They have 91% of the market for computers over $1000.
2.)
a) SOLAR ENERGY: For example, we all know that during the summer, one of the hardest costs to offset is for cooling. I would like to suggest a possibility for an advanced cooling system that uses solar energy to energize the cooling system, since often times it is very sunny during this time of year.
b) Principle 1
Energy sources that are more localized instead of mass produced energy, through the implementation of localized green energy technologies. This would help alleviate current issues with current green energy sources efficiency and sustainability issues for larger populations.
Principle 6
For example, one could make window blinds that had solar panel servers to collect energy, or devise exterior building materials that could collect solar energy.
Principle 14
For example, one could use mirrors and curved reflective panels to focus light more directly and intensely on solar panels, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency.
Principle 15
For example, one could design a solar power system that automatically adjusts to the maximum light intensity for optimal efficiency of the solar panel.
Principle 17
For example, one could design a solar power system with multiple panels configured in the most optimum arrangement, instead of just having single sets of panels.
Principle 23
For example, one could introduce feedback into a solar panel system to help the efficiency of the solar panel system.
Principle 30
For example, one could devise a thin film “solar panel” that can be applied over larger areas that is flexible instead of rigid.
Principle 34
For example, one could devise solar panel system that would automatically remove a broken solar panel section and then repair the section with a new set of solar panels, without having to completely disable the solar panels.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Homework 5
Homework 5
1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.
2) 10 Markets of Interest
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left
2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left
3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left
1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.
2) 10 Markets of Interest
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left
2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left
3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left
Monday, September 14, 2009
Homework 4
1. Delphi Method Results for Question Posed to Class (Responses: 1, 2, 4, 5, 5-6, 7, 8, 12, 12-15, 19, Never)
2. Tentatively, I would like my term project to be something related to "green energy" technologies. I believe that these technologies are an integral part to our future, and their presence will become overwhelming in our lifetime. For my project, I would like to explore these new technologies and determine when their presence dominates that of older energy technologies, including energy obtained from all non-renewable sources. As for next steps, I would like to investigate potential new green energy technologies and the likelihood of their acceptance or success.
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