1) Check out the Leonid shower tonight...
Video 1 Check it out!
Video 2 Check it out!
I wasn't able to actually view the Leonid shower from my apartment, which is smack dab in the middle of Little Rock, mainly since I don't have a very good view of the sky from where I live due to light pollution and the fact that my apartment complex is practically built into a hill. However, I did find a couple of videos that had some impressive Leonid shower displays. The first video shows a time lapse and is definitely worth checking out!
In relation to colonization, it would be quite interesting if we were able to colonize comets. Some cruise around our solar system, while others cruise in to our solar system then leave. To me it would be quite amazing to "ride" one of these comets and to explore the depths of space in more detail (Although colonization would have many challenges.)
Also, you may want to visit this "supporting" link for more information on colonizing our solar system that I found on wikipedia...it was pretty interesting! Click here to view the article. It mainly focuses on the most likely ways of colonizing our outer solar system.
2) Term projects...
My presentation is finished and has already been given to the class. Additionally, I have completed all of the research for my paper and just have the fictional section to complete. The other updated sections have been posted below.
-------------------
Biofuel Power
Surprisingly, biofuels have been around for a long time, even preceding petroleum-based fuels, dating back as early as the late 1800s. In fact, ethanol (a biofuel often blended in today’s gasoline) was used to power early cars including Henry Ford’s Model-T (Biofuels Today).
Biofuels are renewable and efficient fuels that come from living organisms, organic waste, or food waste. To be classified as a biofuel, the fuel must contain at least 80 percent renewable materials (Biofuels). Additionally biofuels are clean burning—meaning they don’t contain sulfur—so when they are burned no sulfur dioxide gas is produced as is when burning petroleum-based fuels (Biofuels Today).
With these benefits, why are biofuels such a small part of today’s energy portfolio? The petroleum fuel industry saw the threat of biofuels taking over their market share, so the industry cut their prices, killing off their competition. By the mid-20th century, the use of biofuels stagnated and died out. However, as has been mentioned before, the energy crisis of the 1970s opened up a new door in the future of renewable energy, breathing new life into biofuels (History of Biofuels). Biofuels still supply a small portion of today’s energy resources. It will take another energy crisis like the ones of the mid-1970s to really boost biofuels presence.
Roadmap to the Future: Green Energy Production
What does our energy future look like? How are we going to get there if it is to be greener? What technologies will we see become more widely adopted, and when? These are all important questions, but it is often hard to come to a certain answer when new technologies and techniques rise year after year. However, after performing the research above, many of current key facts were assembled that aids in the projection of a foreseeable green energy future and the technology that could be used.
Our energy future will eventually make a transition into green energy whether we like it or not. Our fossil fuels are running out, as current research suggests that known reserves will last approximately 40 years for oil, 60 years for natural gas, and 120+ years for coal. Additionally, research suggests that biofuel, solar, and wind power will continue to grow making them cheaper and more widely available. Hydro power and geothermal power still have a potential for providing green energy, but will each only provide less than 10% of the total global demand. Nuclear power could still provide greener energy in a transitional period, if the need for energy couldn’t be immediately met by greener sources. Prospects of virus-assembled non-toxic green batteries, the successful zero-emission generation of power from coal, and the possible doubling of coals power generating capacity also provide hope to a greener tomorrow.
What my research fails to answer is that question of when green energy will come to provide a majority of the world’s power—a question which many others besides myself have posed. Although there is no definitive answer yet, it is possible to allude to one possible solution (See
“2109: A Possible Glimpse of the Future,” after Works Cited). Nonetheless, green energy will be an important part of our future when our natural resources have become depleted—the all important question that just can’t be answered is when.
Conclusion
Green energy technologies will most definitely play a vital role in our energy future. As our natural resources continue to deplete, major supplies of green energy will be necessary if we are to continue our traditional way of life when our resources finally do run dry. Biomass, solar, and wind power have the highest potential for growth; and if Harvard research is valid, wind energy may prove to be a key solution.
2109: A Possible Glimpse of the Future
Building up to 2109: A Transitional Phase
-Humans will start to drive plug-in electric hybrids instead of petroleum based cars
-Electric hybrids and electronic devices start to become powered by virus-assembled green batteries
-Coal plants will be retrofitted with zero-emission specifications that also implement the doubling efficiency coal effect
-Biofuels will start to replace petroleum based fuels in late transitioning petrol-car owners
-Electric plants will start to create power from biofuels instead of coal
-Solar panels will be incorporated in new building designs
-Wind turbines will start to dot the landscape more frequently
2100: Defining Point—End of Transitional Period
-Goal has been met—energy now primarily produced from biofuels, solar power, and wind power
-Nuclear, geothermal, and hydro power are still present from transitional periods
-Coal power is still produced but now new plants are being constructed as most are becoming phased out
Monday, November 30, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Homework 13
1) Recall the relevant class. Comment on Toxoplasma Gondii. What do you think?
Toxoplasma Gondii is one scary parasitic protozoa. However, it seems that any situation stemmed from the current organism is manageable. Although the disease can cause adverse effects in humans, I don't think that it will ever cause an epidemic. Awareness to the disease is key, yet having rats as pets could reduce its presence in humans! :)
2) Add more to your project. Put the new stuff in a new blog posting. Consider new material that has some connection to Toxoplasma Gondii. Alternatively, it could have a connection to some other parasite or disease, or parasites or diseases more generally. Or it might be about something completely different...your choice!
New Sections:
Hydroelectric Power
As was mentioned earlier, the first hydroelectric plant was finished in Appleton, Wisconsin, in 1882. Additionally, it was noted that in 1925, hydroelectric power provided 25% of US electrical power; today, that number has dropped to a mere 5% (The Solar Guide). So why hasn’t hydroelectric power really caught on? Again, most of it goes back to that age old situation of coal and oil becoming the cheaper alternative. Additionally, environmental impact studies on surrounding ecosystems of current dam sites have shed negative light on hydroelectric power (Union of Concerned Scientists). If hydroelectric power is to ever become a significant part of our green energy future, these risks will have to be mitigated.
Wind Power
As was stated previously, utilizing the power of wind for useful purposes has been around for a long time. However, it wasn’t until the late 19th century that the power of wind was used to generate electricity.
In Cleveland, Ohio, in 1888, Charles F. Brush built the first large-scale windmill generating around 100 kilowatts of power per hour. However, many design improvements were needed to produce a larger amount of power, if these machines were ever to become feasible. That needed design change came in 1941 in Vermont, with a 1.25mW generating monster. The Europeans continued to develop and refine the former design, eventually leading to the modern wind turbines of today (Illustrated History of Wind Power Development). However, falling coal and oil prices stagnated interest in wind power, that is, until very recently.
In a new study published by Harvard University, the potential for wind generated power to supply a majority of the world’s electricity demand may not be too far-fetched. The new research includes a key factor that previous studies had not considered—the inclusion of wind towers that are 100 meters or taller, allowing for higher wind speeds in the upper atmosphere to generate more electricity than previously considered with shorter towers. The team then used data from thousands of weather stations to estimate the total world’s wind energy potential, assuming that 2.5 – 3 mW wind turbines were placed in unfrozen, non-forested locations, as well as some shallow offshore areas. Their findings were astonishing. Wind power could potentially generate 40 times the amount of current world power consumption. Additionally, they noted that the US could generate 16 times the amount of their current consumptions rates, allowing for the surplus of energy to be sold off, coining the US as a “Saudi Arabia of Wind” (Lorinc, John). If these findings are valid, wind energy may prove to solve the current task of finding viable green energy sources.
Geothermal Power
Geothermal energy utilizes the earth’s heat to produce energy. The Earth generates a vast amount of thermal energy. Geothermal energy applications first surfaced in Italy in 1904 with the invention of the first geothermal power plant. Interest in geothermal power stagnated until the 1960s, when the first geothermal power plant was constructed in the United States. However, even though there was a good deal of initial interest, geothermal applications were fairly expensive to implement, and the falling price of coal and fossil fuels led to a further decline in interest (RPEE-CREST).
More recently, research suggests that geothermal energy could be an important part in mitigating climate change by offsetting carbon production from other energy sources. So how much geothermal energy could the Earth potentially yield? According to the International Geothermal Association (IGA), temperatures at the base of Earth’s crust range from 200-1000 degrees Celsius. At the Earth’s core, temperatures soar to between 3500 and 4500 degrees Celsius. With these facts, it is believed that the total heat production of the Earth’s molten core is around 13 x 10 ^ 24 MJ, or Mega Joules. To put that in perspective—from physics, one joule is the amount of work required to produce a continuous watt of power for one second. A mega joule is equal to one million joules. In 2005, the world energy generation was nearing 6.6 x 10 ^ 13 MJ, so thermal energy appears to have a promising prospect in providing sustainable green energy (International Geothermal Association, 5-6).
However, it is impossible to utilize all that energy, as it can’t be evenly accessed across the Earth’s surface due to variations in the Earth’s core, volcanic activity, and magmatic activity under the Earth’s crust. Current research suggests that it is possible for geothermal energy to produce a maximum of 8.3% of the total world electricity, at current electricity demands (International Geothermal, 6-7). It seems geothermal energy could play an important part in a transitional period to a greener energy future.
Notable Recent Innovations in Green Energy Technologies
Another interesting technology has been recently demonstrated by MIT researchers, involving the production of green batteries from genetically engineered viruses. Essentially, the virus assembles the positive and negative ends of the battery using non-toxic substances. The entire process is environmentally green and can take place at or below typical room temperature. Practically speaking, the batteries could power plug-in hybrid cars and a host of personal electronic devices that use lithium-ion batteries (Trafton, Anne).
Toxoplasma Gondii is one scary parasitic protozoa. However, it seems that any situation stemmed from the current organism is manageable. Although the disease can cause adverse effects in humans, I don't think that it will ever cause an epidemic. Awareness to the disease is key, yet having rats as pets could reduce its presence in humans! :)
2) Add more to your project. Put the new stuff in a new blog posting. Consider new material that has some connection to Toxoplasma Gondii. Alternatively, it could have a connection to some other parasite or disease, or parasites or diseases more generally. Or it might be about something completely different...your choice!
New Sections:
Hydroelectric Power
As was mentioned earlier, the first hydroelectric plant was finished in Appleton, Wisconsin, in 1882. Additionally, it was noted that in 1925, hydroelectric power provided 25% of US electrical power; today, that number has dropped to a mere 5% (The Solar Guide). So why hasn’t hydroelectric power really caught on? Again, most of it goes back to that age old situation of coal and oil becoming the cheaper alternative. Additionally, environmental impact studies on surrounding ecosystems of current dam sites have shed negative light on hydroelectric power (Union of Concerned Scientists). If hydroelectric power is to ever become a significant part of our green energy future, these risks will have to be mitigated.
Wind Power
As was stated previously, utilizing the power of wind for useful purposes has been around for a long time. However, it wasn’t until the late 19th century that the power of wind was used to generate electricity.
In Cleveland, Ohio, in 1888, Charles F. Brush built the first large-scale windmill generating around 100 kilowatts of power per hour. However, many design improvements were needed to produce a larger amount of power, if these machines were ever to become feasible. That needed design change came in 1941 in Vermont, with a 1.25mW generating monster. The Europeans continued to develop and refine the former design, eventually leading to the modern wind turbines of today (Illustrated History of Wind Power Development). However, falling coal and oil prices stagnated interest in wind power, that is, until very recently.
In a new study published by Harvard University, the potential for wind generated power to supply a majority of the world’s electricity demand may not be too far-fetched. The new research includes a key factor that previous studies had not considered—the inclusion of wind towers that are 100 meters or taller, allowing for higher wind speeds in the upper atmosphere to generate more electricity than previously considered with shorter towers. The team then used data from thousands of weather stations to estimate the total world’s wind energy potential, assuming that 2.5 – 3 mW wind turbines were placed in unfrozen, non-forested locations, as well as some shallow offshore areas. Their findings were astonishing. Wind power could potentially generate 40 times the amount of current world power consumption. Additionally, they noted that the US could generate 16 times the amount of their current consumptions rates, allowing for the surplus of energy to be sold off, coining the US as a “Saudi Arabia of Wind” (Lorinc, John). If these findings are valid, wind energy may prove to solve the current task of finding viable green energy sources.
Geothermal Power
Geothermal energy utilizes the earth’s heat to produce energy. The Earth generates a vast amount of thermal energy. Geothermal energy applications first surfaced in Italy in 1904 with the invention of the first geothermal power plant. Interest in geothermal power stagnated until the 1960s, when the first geothermal power plant was constructed in the United States. However, even though there was a good deal of initial interest, geothermal applications were fairly expensive to implement, and the falling price of coal and fossil fuels led to a further decline in interest (RPEE-CREST).
More recently, research suggests that geothermal energy could be an important part in mitigating climate change by offsetting carbon production from other energy sources. So how much geothermal energy could the Earth potentially yield? According to the International Geothermal Association (IGA), temperatures at the base of Earth’s crust range from 200-1000 degrees Celsius. At the Earth’s core, temperatures soar to between 3500 and 4500 degrees Celsius. With these facts, it is believed that the total heat production of the Earth’s molten core is around 13 x 10 ^ 24 MJ, or Mega Joules. To put that in perspective—from physics, one joule is the amount of work required to produce a continuous watt of power for one second. A mega joule is equal to one million joules. In 2005, the world energy generation was nearing 6.6 x 10 ^ 13 MJ, so thermal energy appears to have a promising prospect in providing sustainable green energy (International Geothermal Association, 5-6).
However, it is impossible to utilize all that energy, as it can’t be evenly accessed across the Earth’s surface due to variations in the Earth’s core, volcanic activity, and magmatic activity under the Earth’s crust. Current research suggests that it is possible for geothermal energy to produce a maximum of 8.3% of the total world electricity, at current electricity demands (International Geothermal, 6-7). It seems geothermal energy could play an important part in a transitional period to a greener energy future.
Notable Recent Innovations in Green Energy Technologies
Another interesting technology has been recently demonstrated by MIT researchers, involving the production of green batteries from genetically engineered viruses. Essentially, the virus assembles the positive and negative ends of the battery using non-toxic substances. The entire process is environmentally green and can take place at or below typical room temperature. Practically speaking, the batteries could power plug-in hybrid cars and a host of personal electronic devices that use lithium-ion batteries (Trafton, Anne).
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Homework 12
1) Suppose you had a coupon for a free robot. The catch is it can only do one thing. But you can get a robot that will do whatever one thing you like, just not anything else. What would you want your robot to do?
If I had the option for a free robot that could only perform one function, I would choose a robot that could repair any modern electronic device (cell phones, computers, televisions, MP3 players, etc) given the appropriate tools and parts. I find often that when these types of things break I usually throw them away and end up disappointed at the money I lost because it broke—it would be really nice to have a robot to repair that type of hardware!
2) Write or develop an additional significant piece of your project. As a suggestion, consider the connection of robots to your topic. However, if another subject besides robots seems more appropriate, that is just as good. Post the new section on your blog.
I have significantly updated my paper by revising the introduction and history of green energy technologies to flow with the rest of the paper (More Past-->Present-->Future, if that makes sense). I have also incorporated my official "Works Cited" into my paper citing the sources I have used thus far, as well as parenthetical citations. View an updated version here.
Additionally, per this assignment's instructions, I have drafted the following new sections.
Solar Power
As mentioned earlier, photovoltaics were discovered in the early 1800s. However, it wasn’t until the mid-1950s that the technology advanced enough (primarily due to the “Space Race”) to become practical and affordable. Nonetheless, cheap coal stifled solar energy research until the energy crisis caused by the Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s warranted further research into alternative energy sources. The US Government invested heavily in solar energy research, thus leading to a reduction in price of solar panels and other solar implementations. However, the price of fossil fuels declined as solar panel prices fell, which led to a stagnation of research interest, and an eventual rise in solar panel prices (Southface.org)
As happened with nuclear power, countries outside the United States are beginning to significantly diversify their energy sources. For instance, Japan installed 25,000 solar rooftops in 2002 (Southface.org). Large orders such as this will help to lower costs of this technology; however, it will take more than one order of this magnitude to lower the price significantly enough to make it affordable to the masses.
Geothermal Power
Geothermal energy uses the earth’s heat to produce energy. Geothermal energy applications first surfaced in Italy in 1904 with the invention of the first geothermal power plant. Interest in geothermal power stagnated until the 1960s, when the first geothermal power plant was constructed in the United States. However, even though there was a good deal of initial interest, geothermal applications were fairly expensive to implement, and the falling price of coal and fossil fuels led to a further decline in interest (RPEE-CREST).
If I had the option for a free robot that could only perform one function, I would choose a robot that could repair any modern electronic device (cell phones, computers, televisions, MP3 players, etc) given the appropriate tools and parts. I find often that when these types of things break I usually throw them away and end up disappointed at the money I lost because it broke—it would be really nice to have a robot to repair that type of hardware!
2) Write or develop an additional significant piece of your project. As a suggestion, consider the connection of robots to your topic. However, if another subject besides robots seems more appropriate, that is just as good. Post the new section on your blog.
I have significantly updated my paper by revising the introduction and history of green energy technologies to flow with the rest of the paper (More Past-->Present-->Future, if that makes sense). I have also incorporated my official "Works Cited" into my paper citing the sources I have used thus far, as well as parenthetical citations. View an updated version here.
Additionally, per this assignment's instructions, I have drafted the following new sections.
Solar Power
As mentioned earlier, photovoltaics were discovered in the early 1800s. However, it wasn’t until the mid-1950s that the technology advanced enough (primarily due to the “Space Race”) to become practical and affordable. Nonetheless, cheap coal stifled solar energy research until the energy crisis caused by the Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s warranted further research into alternative energy sources. The US Government invested heavily in solar energy research, thus leading to a reduction in price of solar panels and other solar implementations. However, the price of fossil fuels declined as solar panel prices fell, which led to a stagnation of research interest, and an eventual rise in solar panel prices (Southface.org)
As happened with nuclear power, countries outside the United States are beginning to significantly diversify their energy sources. For instance, Japan installed 25,000 solar rooftops in 2002 (Southface.org). Large orders such as this will help to lower costs of this technology; however, it will take more than one order of this magnitude to lower the price significantly enough to make it affordable to the masses.
Geothermal Power
Geothermal energy uses the earth’s heat to produce energy. Geothermal energy applications first surfaced in Italy in 1904 with the invention of the first geothermal power plant. Interest in geothermal power stagnated until the 1960s, when the first geothermal power plant was constructed in the United States. However, even though there was a good deal of initial interest, geothermal applications were fairly expensive to implement, and the falling price of coal and fossil fuels led to a further decline in interest (RPEE-CREST).
Monday, November 2, 2009
Homework 11
Homework 11
Computing, Information and the Future, 11/2/09
Question 1
The discussion in class (Monday October 26, 2009, Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate; Trend Analysis) does not really apply to my project, “Green Energy Technologies: A Look at the Past, Present, and a Plausible Future to Sustainable Green Energy Sources.” In class, we talked about the weather and climate, and whether or not it was more feasible to control the weather or to predict the weather. Since my project primarily deals with green energy technologies, the only real application would be the seeding of clouds (controlling clouds) to enable more sunlight for solar panels; however, this would probably prove far too expensive in the real world. Additionally, we talked about trend analysis, which could be used to try and show trends in green energy technologies; however, I have already shown through pure fiscal figures that green energy technologies are growing and should continue to grow even more as the need for green energy rises.
Question 2
The discussion in class (Wednesday, October 28, 2009, Final spoil sports of prediction: existential angst; time value of money) can be applied to my project, “Green Energy Technologies: A Look at the Past, Present, and a Plausible Future to Sustainable Green Energy Sources.” First, when talking about existentialism in class, an important question was raised regarding societies’, “Failure to recognize a critical problem before it happens.” Many of us know that one day we will need sustainable green energy technologies when our nonrenewable resources that provide energy are used up; however, we may not necessarily realize the true depth of this problem until it’s too late. Additionally, TVM can indirectly be applied to this concept in that oil tycoons value their profits now, but may not be thinking down the line when those reserves run dry and they are left with nothing. Unless they invest in green energy technologies, their ‘reign’ would be over.
Question 3
I have advanced my project—here are the updated sections. I will post more sections here as they are finished/updated.
Introduction (Revised)
In a global society driven by the need for more energy, our world has grown accustom to accessing a seemingly endless supply of electricity primarily produced by non-renewable resources. However, as our non-renewable resources run out, the need for sustainable renewable energy sources have become a growing area of concern. Additionally, hot topics of global warming and rising energy demand have spurred an even clearer need for sustainable green energy sources.
Nuclear Energy (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf54.html)
Although nuclear energy isn’t necessarily green, it may be an important part in a plan to provide greener energy during a transitional period from oil/coal to green energy sources. The science of nuclear energy (e.g. atomic studies and nuclear fission) was developed from 1895 to 1945. After the atomic bomb, focus shifted to containing and controlling the energy from nuclear fission to be used in the production of electricity. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the first commercial nuclear reactors went live producing electricity. Orders flew in for nuclear power plants, and many were constructed and went live over the next two decades. From the late 1970s into the early 21st century, there was a significant decline in the construction of nuclear power plants. Oil companies that had entered uranium mining bailed out and the price of uranium dropped due to a consolidation of uranium providers. Then in 2004, three key factors revived the prospect of nuclear energy: 1) Projected increased energy demand worldwide, 2) Awareness of energy security, 3) Limiting of carbon emissions due to rising concern of global warming. China, India, Japan, and South Korea lead the way in constructing more nuclear power plants to supply this demand. The UK and USA must follow suit to keep up with the energy demand, or find other innovative ways to meet this need.
Computing, Information and the Future, 11/2/09
Question 1
The discussion in class (Monday October 26, 2009, Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate; Trend Analysis) does not really apply to my project, “Green Energy Technologies: A Look at the Past, Present, and a Plausible Future to Sustainable Green Energy Sources.” In class, we talked about the weather and climate, and whether or not it was more feasible to control the weather or to predict the weather. Since my project primarily deals with green energy technologies, the only real application would be the seeding of clouds (controlling clouds) to enable more sunlight for solar panels; however, this would probably prove far too expensive in the real world. Additionally, we talked about trend analysis, which could be used to try and show trends in green energy technologies; however, I have already shown through pure fiscal figures that green energy technologies are growing and should continue to grow even more as the need for green energy rises.
Question 2
The discussion in class (Wednesday, October 28, 2009, Final spoil sports of prediction: existential angst; time value of money) can be applied to my project, “Green Energy Technologies: A Look at the Past, Present, and a Plausible Future to Sustainable Green Energy Sources.” First, when talking about existentialism in class, an important question was raised regarding societies’, “Failure to recognize a critical problem before it happens.” Many of us know that one day we will need sustainable green energy technologies when our nonrenewable resources that provide energy are used up; however, we may not necessarily realize the true depth of this problem until it’s too late. Additionally, TVM can indirectly be applied to this concept in that oil tycoons value their profits now, but may not be thinking down the line when those reserves run dry and they are left with nothing. Unless they invest in green energy technologies, their ‘reign’ would be over.
Question 3
I have advanced my project—here are the updated sections. I will post more sections here as they are finished/updated.
Introduction (Revised)
In a global society driven by the need for more energy, our world has grown accustom to accessing a seemingly endless supply of electricity primarily produced by non-renewable resources. However, as our non-renewable resources run out, the need for sustainable renewable energy sources have become a growing area of concern. Additionally, hot topics of global warming and rising energy demand have spurred an even clearer need for sustainable green energy sources.
Nuclear Energy (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf54.html)
Although nuclear energy isn’t necessarily green, it may be an important part in a plan to provide greener energy during a transitional period from oil/coal to green energy sources. The science of nuclear energy (e.g. atomic studies and nuclear fission) was developed from 1895 to 1945. After the atomic bomb, focus shifted to containing and controlling the energy from nuclear fission to be used in the production of electricity. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the first commercial nuclear reactors went live producing electricity. Orders flew in for nuclear power plants, and many were constructed and went live over the next two decades. From the late 1970s into the early 21st century, there was a significant decline in the construction of nuclear power plants. Oil companies that had entered uranium mining bailed out and the price of uranium dropped due to a consolidation of uranium providers. Then in 2004, three key factors revived the prospect of nuclear energy: 1) Projected increased energy demand worldwide, 2) Awareness of energy security, 3) Limiting of carbon emissions due to rising concern of global warming. China, India, Japan, and South Korea lead the way in constructing more nuclear power plants to supply this demand. The UK and USA must follow suit to keep up with the energy demand, or find other innovative ways to meet this need.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Homework 10
Q1) We discussed in class how there is no such thing as a "scientific proof." Explain in your own words.
There is no such thing as a scientific proof as science primarily deals with theories and hypotheses. A scientific theory is a hypothesis supported by observation and the documentation of the outcomes of the experiments aimed at proving or disproving the hypothesis. However, there is no ultimate proof that a scientific theory or hypothesis holds in all outcomes or situations as we do not have a universal knowledge and understanding of everything there is to know in science; for example, there is a possibility that an experiment could disprove the theory of relativity, we just don't know what experiment that is. Therefore in science, an absolute proof is almost always impossible. Science purely tries to explain things by finding evidence supporting the hypothesis.
Q2) Write a new part for your project of 250 words or more.
Click here to view the second pre-draft of my report. It includes updates to sections, "History of Green Energy Sources" and "New Green Energy Technologies".
There is no such thing as a scientific proof as science primarily deals with theories and hypotheses. A scientific theory is a hypothesis supported by observation and the documentation of the outcomes of the experiments aimed at proving or disproving the hypothesis. However, there is no ultimate proof that a scientific theory or hypothesis holds in all outcomes or situations as we do not have a universal knowledge and understanding of everything there is to know in science; for example, there is a possibility that an experiment could disprove the theory of relativity, we just don't know what experiment that is. Therefore in science, an absolute proof is almost always impossible. Science purely tries to explain things by finding evidence supporting the hypothesis.
Q2) Write a new part for your project of 250 words or more.
Click here to view the second pre-draft of my report. It includes updates to sections, "History of Green Energy Sources" and "New Green Energy Technologies".
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Homework 9
As assigned in IFSC 4399, I have began drafting my final report on the past, present, and future of green energy technologies as a replacement for current non-renewable energy sources.
Click here to view a pre-draft of my report.
As far as work I have done on my report; I have drafted the following sections of my report: Purpose and Introduction. Additionally, I have started drafting the section regarding the History of Green Energy Sources. For the other sections of my report (Current Green Energy Sources, New Green Energy Technologies, Promising Technologies, Roadmap to the Future, A Glimpse of the Future: 2109, and the Conclusion), I have started to look for content to add to these sections. For all sections of the report, I have tried to note what I plan to do for each section.
Click here to view a pre-draft of my report.
As far as work I have done on my report; I have drafted the following sections of my report: Purpose and Introduction. Additionally, I have started drafting the section regarding the History of Green Energy Sources. For the other sections of my report (Current Green Energy Sources, New Green Energy Technologies, Promising Technologies, Roadmap to the Future, A Glimpse of the Future: 2109, and the Conclusion), I have started to look for content to add to these sections. For all sections of the report, I have tried to note what I plan to do for each section.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Homework 8: Minority Report Review
Minority Report is a movie set in the future around 2054 in Washington, D.C. The movie is premised on the fact that in the city, murderers are caught before they actually commit the crime based on visual evidence obtained from three precognitives, or ‘precogs’, who can see the future murders happening while they are in a dreamy state. A high-tech computer system captures these images from the precogs as they are seeing them, and the Washington, D.C. Precrime division uses those images as evidence in convicting the criminals.
Now, I realize movies are not necessarily supposed to be realistic, but I have to say this: I don't believe the events portrayed in this movie could actually happen in real life. One of the most troubling concepts I have with this movie in relation to the real world is that in the movie, they are arresting individuals before they commit a crime. Arguably, the ‘precogs’ are never wrong and the utopian idea of a murder-less society is very appealing. However, using the precogs’ visions of future murders as evidence for crimes that have not yet been committed is something I believe our society would not be okay with.
Another concept I find debatable in this movie is the concept of free-will versus predestination, and whether free-will can alter the future. As the Division of Precrime uses the precogs’ visions for committals, this movie tends towards the idea of predestination, and that the future can’t be altered. I find this hard to grasp as I believe that free-will drives and empowers us and the path we take changes our future.
Regardless, this movie is great and I recommend all to watch it.
Now, I realize movies are not necessarily supposed to be realistic, but I have to say this: I don't believe the events portrayed in this movie could actually happen in real life. One of the most troubling concepts I have with this movie in relation to the real world is that in the movie, they are arresting individuals before they commit a crime. Arguably, the ‘precogs’ are never wrong and the utopian idea of a murder-less society is very appealing. However, using the precogs’ visions of future murders as evidence for crimes that have not yet been committed is something I believe our society would not be okay with.
Another concept I find debatable in this movie is the concept of free-will versus predestination, and whether free-will can alter the future. As the Division of Precrime uses the precogs’ visions for committals, this movie tends towards the idea of predestination, and that the future can’t be altered. I find this hard to grasp as I believe that free-will drives and empowers us and the path we take changes our future.
Regardless, this movie is great and I recommend all to watch it.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Homework 7: Outline for Final Project
Green Energy Technologies:
A Look at the Present and
A Plausible Roadmap to the Future of Sustainable Green Energy
I. Introduction
a. Purpose
i. This report will delve into current green energy technologies and provide a roadmap to the future of sustainable green energy sources, as the need for sustainable renewable energy sources is becoming clear.
b. Orienting Material
i. The Need for a Sustainable Green Energy
1. Majority of energy today comes from nonrenewable resources
2. Due to depleting of natural resources, global warming (will not get into the debate), and many other reasons, clear and present need for sustainable green energy
3. (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&
contentId=7044622),
The world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com /reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
II. Body
a. History of Green Energy Sources
i. Early Times (B.C.)
1. First recorded use of “green energy”
http://www.thesolarguide.com/solar4scholars/renewable-history.aspx
a. 3200 BC First recorded use of wind energy. The sail is invented by the Egyptians.
b. 200 BC Invention of the windmill, in China.
2. 1839-The discovery of solar photovoltaics. Edmond Becquerel notices that sunlight absorbed in certain materials produces electricity.
3. 1882-The first hydroelectric plant is finished, in Appleton, Wisconsin.
ii. Present
1. Nuclear Powerà Not really green and comes from limited amounts of radioactive substances
2. Solar Energy
3. Hydroelectric Dams
4. Wind Power
5. Biomass/Biofuels
6. Geothermal
b. Current Innovative Green Technologies
i. Recent Innovations
1. Coal Power Gone Green http://www.anticorruption.ca/forum/phpBB2
/viewtopic.php?t=8276&sid=154576d81a76024e0113d8c481968d24
2. Website:
Description: This article gave information of using carbon nano-tubes instead of silicon to extract energy more efficiently from the sun.
3. Website: http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered- toyota-prius/
Description: This article gave information about possibly using algae as a replacement for gasoline in cars. This seems very possible and extremely eco-friendly because of a lack of harmful byproduct.)
c. A Look to the Future
i. Promising Technologies
ii. Roadmap
1. With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
iii. A Glimpse of the Future : 2109
1. Provide a fictional yet creative look at the future after a century of innovation.
III. Conclusion
a. Recap
A Look at the Present and
A Plausible Roadmap to the Future of Sustainable Green Energy
I. Introduction
a. Purpose
i. This report will delve into current green energy technologies and provide a roadmap to the future of sustainable green energy sources, as the need for sustainable renewable energy sources is becoming clear.
b. Orienting Material
i. The Need for a Sustainable Green Energy
1. Majority of energy today comes from nonrenewable resources
2. Due to depleting of natural resources, global warming (will not get into the debate), and many other reasons, clear and present need for sustainable green energy
3. (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&
contentId=7044622),
The world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com /reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
II. Body
a. History of Green Energy Sources
i. Early Times (B.C.)
1. First recorded use of “green energy”
http://www.thesolarguide.com/solar4scholars/renewable-history.aspx
a. 3200 BC First recorded use of wind energy. The sail is invented by the Egyptians.
b. 200 BC Invention of the windmill, in China.
2. 1839-The discovery of solar photovoltaics. Edmond Becquerel notices that sunlight absorbed in certain materials produces electricity.
3. 1882-The first hydroelectric plant is finished, in Appleton, Wisconsin.
ii. Present
1. Nuclear Powerà Not really green and comes from limited amounts of radioactive substances
2. Solar Energy
3. Hydroelectric Dams
4. Wind Power
5. Biomass/Biofuels
6. Geothermal
b. Current Innovative Green Technologies
i. Recent Innovations
1. Coal Power Gone Green http://www.anticorruption.ca/forum/phpBB2
/viewtopic.php?t=8276&sid=154576d81a76024e0113d8c481968d24
2. Website:
Description: This article gave information of using carbon nano-tubes instead of silicon to extract energy more efficiently from the sun.
3. Website: http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered- toyota-prius/
Description: This article gave information about possibly using algae as a replacement for gasoline in cars. This seems very possible and extremely eco-friendly because of a lack of harmful byproduct.)
c. A Look to the Future
i. Promising Technologies
ii. Roadmap
1. With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
iii. A Glimpse of the Future : 2109
1. Provide a fictional yet creative look at the future after a century of innovation.
III. Conclusion
a. Recap
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Homework 6
1.)
When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
o Title: Return to Supersonic Commercial Flight in 2015
o http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/11/return-to-supersonic-commercial-flight.html
o Summary:
According to this website, the Aerion Supersonic Jet has test flights planned for 2012 an will fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.6. Compared to a conventional airplane flying from New York to Paris (which normally takes 7.5 hours) , this jet makes it there in just over 4 hours. With prospects like this, it looks like it will take a long time for commercial airplanes to become 10 times faster than they are today. However, I think it is important to note that this plane has a new design that has expected operation costs similar to that of today’s larger jets.
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
o Title: Human Lifespan: Is There a Limit?
o http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s
o Summary:
One of the most startling conclusions this article comes to is that the number of people surviving after the age of 100 since 1950 in the US is growing at nearly 7% per year. Additionally, the article posits that the maximum human life span is changing and is not a biological constant. Although this article doesn’t allude to any specifics for the average lifespan in 2050, it makes an interesting estimate that the number of centenarians in the US will grow to 834,000 by 2050, from 72,000 in the year 2000. I do believe the average lifespan will increase, but since there are many variables to consider (cures for cancer, aids, starvation, etc), it may be too difficult to discern a reasonable estimate so far into the future.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
o Title: The Mac Versus PC Debate has Never Been Clearer
o http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/23/the-mac-versus-pc-debate-has-never-been-clearer/
o Summary:
In Apple’s quarterly review, their COO Tim Cook stated that the company’s goal was “Not to build the most computers…it’s to build the best.” In my opinion, this article puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. The cold hard fact: Apple has less than 10% of the market, when compared to Windows-based PCs, and most importantly, when price is a key factor, buyers will NEVER buy a Mac. Apple’s market is for premium high quality computers which has and probably always will be successful for them. They have 91% of the market for computers over $1000.
2.)
a) SOLAR ENERGY: For example, we all know that during the summer, one of the hardest costs to offset is for cooling. I would like to suggest a possibility for an advanced cooling system that uses solar energy to energize the cooling system, since often times it is very sunny during this time of year.
b) Principle 1
Energy sources that are more localized instead of mass produced energy, through the implementation of localized green energy technologies. This would help alleviate current issues with current green energy sources efficiency and sustainability issues for larger populations.
Principle 6
For example, one could make window blinds that had solar panel servers to collect energy, or devise exterior building materials that could collect solar energy.
Principle 14
For example, one could use mirrors and curved reflective panels to focus light more directly and intensely on solar panels, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency.
Principle 15
For example, one could design a solar power system that automatically adjusts to the maximum light intensity for optimal efficiency of the solar panel.
Principle 17
For example, one could design a solar power system with multiple panels configured in the most optimum arrangement, instead of just having single sets of panels.
Principle 23
For example, one could introduce feedback into a solar panel system to help the efficiency of the solar panel system.
Principle 30
For example, one could devise a thin film “solar panel” that can be applied over larger areas that is flexible instead of rigid.
Principle 34
For example, one could devise solar panel system that would automatically remove a broken solar panel section and then repair the section with a new set of solar panels, without having to completely disable the solar panels.
When will commercial airplanes will be ten time faster?
o Title: Return to Supersonic Commercial Flight in 2015
o http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/11/return-to-supersonic-commercial-flight.html
o Summary:
According to this website, the Aerion Supersonic Jet has test flights planned for 2012 an will fly at speeds of up to Mach 1.6. Compared to a conventional airplane flying from New York to Paris (which normally takes 7.5 hours) , this jet makes it there in just over 4 hours. With prospects like this, it looks like it will take a long time for commercial airplanes to become 10 times faster than they are today. However, I think it is important to note that this plane has a new design that has expected operation costs similar to that of today’s larger jets.
What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
o Title: Human Lifespan: Is There a Limit?
o http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s
o Summary:
One of the most startling conclusions this article comes to is that the number of people surviving after the age of 100 since 1950 in the US is growing at nearly 7% per year. Additionally, the article posits that the maximum human life span is changing and is not a biological constant. Although this article doesn’t allude to any specifics for the average lifespan in 2050, it makes an interesting estimate that the number of centenarians in the US will grow to 834,000 by 2050, from 72,000 in the year 2000. I do believe the average lifespan will increase, but since there are many variables to consider (cures for cancer, aids, starvation, etc), it may be too difficult to discern a reasonable estimate so far into the future.
Will Mac take control of the software market from Microsoft?
o Title: The Mac Versus PC Debate has Never Been Clearer
o http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/23/the-mac-versus-pc-debate-has-never-been-clearer/
o Summary:
In Apple’s quarterly review, their COO Tim Cook stated that the company’s goal was “Not to build the most computers…it’s to build the best.” In my opinion, this article puts the nail in the coffin for this debate. The cold hard fact: Apple has less than 10% of the market, when compared to Windows-based PCs, and most importantly, when price is a key factor, buyers will NEVER buy a Mac. Apple’s market is for premium high quality computers which has and probably always will be successful for them. They have 91% of the market for computers over $1000.
2.)
a) SOLAR ENERGY: For example, we all know that during the summer, one of the hardest costs to offset is for cooling. I would like to suggest a possibility for an advanced cooling system that uses solar energy to energize the cooling system, since often times it is very sunny during this time of year.
b) Principle 1
Energy sources that are more localized instead of mass produced energy, through the implementation of localized green energy technologies. This would help alleviate current issues with current green energy sources efficiency and sustainability issues for larger populations.
Principle 6
For example, one could make window blinds that had solar panel servers to collect energy, or devise exterior building materials that could collect solar energy.
Principle 14
For example, one could use mirrors and curved reflective panels to focus light more directly and intensely on solar panels, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency.
Principle 15
For example, one could design a solar power system that automatically adjusts to the maximum light intensity for optimal efficiency of the solar panel.
Principle 17
For example, one could design a solar power system with multiple panels configured in the most optimum arrangement, instead of just having single sets of panels.
Principle 23
For example, one could introduce feedback into a solar panel system to help the efficiency of the solar panel system.
Principle 30
For example, one could devise a thin film “solar panel” that can be applied over larger areas that is flexible instead of rigid.
Principle 34
For example, one could devise solar panel system that would automatically remove a broken solar panel section and then repair the section with a new set of solar panels, without having to completely disable the solar panels.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Homework 5
Homework 5
1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.
2) 10 Markets of Interest
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left
2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left
3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left
1) For this assignment I will be investing $1000 in intrade.com's practice market.
2) 10 Markets of Interest
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10%
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
3)
1. 2016.OLYMPICS.NTH.AMERICA --> 65
A venue in North America to host the 2016 Summer Olympics
2. 2009.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 --> 55
Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record
3. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple
iPhone
4. USA.TARGET.DEC09.>10% --> 85
USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025
5. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $2.50/gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
6. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
Initial Claims to be more than 550,000 (released 8:30am ET 24 Sep 2009)
7. JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 --> 69.70
Person(s) to be charged with manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael
Jackson.
8. CIA.ABUSES.CHARGES.DEC10 --> 35
Any CIA employee to be charged/indicted for detainee abuses before midnight ET 31 Dec
2010
9. GOREvARMSTRONG.ARMSTRONG -->62
The Climate Bet: Al Gore v Scott Armstrong. Armstrong to Win
10. US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 --> 21.50
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec
2009
4) 1.) a. iPHONE.VERIZON.DEC09 --> 15 (TOO LOW)
b. 15*.1=$1.50
c. Will buy 201 contracts.
d. Investing $353
e. 1000 - 353 = $647 left
2.) a. DEC09.GAS.OVER$2.50 --> 58 (TOO LOW)
b. 58*.1=$5.80
c. Will buy 35 contracts.
d. Investing $ 203
e. 647 - 203 = $444 left
3.) a. 24SEP.INITIALCLAIMS>550k --> 60 (TOO LOW)
b. 60*.1=$6.00
c. Will buy 74 contracts.
d. Investing $444
e. 444 - 444 = $0 left
Monday, September 14, 2009
Homework 4
1. Delphi Method Results for Question Posed to Class (Responses: 1, 2, 4, 5, 5-6, 7, 8, 12, 12-15, 19, Never)
2. Tentatively, I would like my term project to be something related to "green energy" technologies. I believe that these technologies are an integral part to our future, and their presence will become overwhelming in our lifetime. For my project, I would like to explore these new technologies and determine when their presence dominates that of older energy technologies, including energy obtained from all non-renewable sources. As for next steps, I would like to investigate potential new green energy technologies and the likelihood of their acceptance or success.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Homework 3
1.
a. (My question was discussed but I never received an e-mail with my numbers. Hopefully the classmate will be in class and I can obtain the data.)
How many years will it take for high-tech mobile devices, complete with Internet access, telephony, and PC functionality, to take over the main-stream PC market?
b. I designed my question this way in order to pinpoint a numerical answer (in number of years) of how long it would take for high-tech mobile devices to take over the PC’s market share.
2. According to information found on the Illinois Institute of Technology’s (IIT) website, the Delphi Method is mainly comprised of the following steps (http://www.iit.edu/~it/delphi.html):
- Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
- Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.
- Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
- Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)
- Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists
- Analysis of the first round responses
- Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)
- Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists
- Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)
- Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise
When comparing the above mentioned process with the one discussed in class, a few differences can be seen. One of the most important differences I noted was that the panel members discussing the issues were not experts of the topics being discussed. The topics discussed covered a broad array of knowledge and problems, and I feel that most panel members could not be classified as experts in these topics. Additionally, in light of some compelling arguments, we were still only allowed two total responses to the issues discussed. I believe that on a few of the items covered, further discussion and responses were needed to accommodate the methodology used in the Delphi Method.
3. There are two main weaknesses that I see for the process we followed in class. First off, none of us can be considered “experts” in the topics we discussed. The Delphi method requires this. Secondly, we were only allowed to discuss the items twice for a total of two responses.
The first problem can’t really be remedied that easily; however, the second problem could easily be remedied by allowing the discussion of the topic until a general consensus was reached to move forward.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Homework 2
1.)
Renewable (Green) Energy: In our near future?
Renewable energy sources have long been a hot topic for discussion. The world over knows that the majority of energy resources driving our world as we know it are non-renewable, and a need for cheap, sustainable, renewable energy sources is clearly necessary to sustain our life as we know it in the future. However, when will this transition occur?
According to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622), the world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com/reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
Roadmap to Renewable Energy
With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
Conclusions
Green energy is in our near future, and very well my become a lucrative market as we continue to deplete our non-renewable resources.
2.) Multi-part Question
a. Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Answer: 12 years
b. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 41.421% / year
c. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 58.74% / year
d. What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
Answer: 35 years
Renewable (Green) Energy: In our near future?
Renewable energy sources have long been a hot topic for discussion. The world over knows that the majority of energy resources driving our world as we know it are non-renewable, and a need for cheap, sustainable, renewable energy sources is clearly necessary to sustain our life as we know it in the future. However, when will this transition occur?
According to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, (http://www.bp.com/productlanding. do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622), the world still has enough known reserves to provide 40 years worth of energy (at current energy consumption rates) from non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm; http://www.cleanedge.com/reports.php), projects that global renewable energy revenues will rise from $16 billion in 2004 to more than $100 billion by 2014. With this in mind, renewable energy sources will become an integral part of our energy future.
Roadmap to Renewable Energy
With a projected growth of nearly 26%/year in revenues from renewable energy sources, it is projected that by 2030, revenue for renewable energy will jump to nearly $3.2 trillion. Granted, there are many different factors that could change these figures, most importantly the fact that profits tend to decrease per product as widespread adoption will likely bring prices of new technology down.
Conclusions
Green energy is in our near future, and very well my become a lucrative market as we continue to deplete our non-renewable resources.
2.) Multi-part Question
a. Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Answer: 12 years
b. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 41.421% / year
c. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
Answer (by trial and error through Excel Spreadsheet): 58.74% / year
d. What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
Answer: 35 years
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Homework #1
1.) Geotagging: The recent advent of new GPS technologies that are integrated or compatible with consumer electronic devices makes geotagging a promising new technology and market. Simply put, geotagging is the process of adding geographical meta-data to pictures, videos, websites, and RSS feeds, etc. Integrating this service into cameras and video recorders would allow one to track exactly where pictures and videos were taken, all of which has been seamlessly integrated into the metadata inside image/video files. With the advent of this new technology, a door to a new market has been opened...and the prospect of keeping pictures and videos better organized AUTOMATICALLY is quite attractive to most!
2.) Amino acids on comets: This article is quite interesting. NASA's Stardust mission, (requiring tireless engineering and immense computing power), has recovered dust from a comet that contains amino acids, a building block of life. Although not involving computing directly, it does show us that technology is allowing us to push the boundaries of previous discoveries to new limits. The implications of this finding could be very real, as scientists are getting closer and closer to finding the ingredients needed for life to develop on Earth.
3.) Coal Power Gone Green?: Very recently, a discovery by a sizable electric company in Italy suggests that they have developed a new process for the creation of "green" electricity from coal. The process completely gets rid of all "ungreen" aspects of coal, and only leaves ash when the process is complete, which will be sold for use in concrete. The new green coal process is also more efficient than burning coal to create electricity, providing nearly double the electricity over traditional coal power plants. This new technology will be interesting to see in action as coal burning power plants provide a majority of the world's power. (The electric company is already building a demonstration plant for this new technology.) A move to a new green coal technology would be extremely beneficial to our planet and our health.
2.) Amino acids on comets: This article is quite interesting. NASA's Stardust mission, (requiring tireless engineering and immense computing power), has recovered dust from a comet that contains amino acids, a building block of life. Although not involving computing directly, it does show us that technology is allowing us to push the boundaries of previous discoveries to new limits. The implications of this finding could be very real, as scientists are getting closer and closer to finding the ingredients needed for life to develop on Earth.
3.) Coal Power Gone Green?: Very recently, a discovery by a sizable electric company in Italy suggests that they have developed a new process for the creation of "green" electricity from coal. The process completely gets rid of all "ungreen" aspects of coal, and only leaves ash when the process is complete, which will be sold for use in concrete. The new green coal process is also more efficient than burning coal to create electricity, providing nearly double the electricity over traditional coal power plants. This new technology will be interesting to see in action as coal burning power plants provide a majority of the world's power. (The electric company is already building a demonstration plant for this new technology.) A move to a new green coal technology would be extremely beneficial to our planet and our health.
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